Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Once Caldas.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Deportivo Pasto, 30% draw, 33% Once Caldas — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas
Line-ups
- 12G. BangueraG
- 33M. GaravitoD
- 21D. Osede
- 5N. GilD
- 3J. RiosD
- 32M. PisanoM
- 15H. MancillaM
- 25F. LeysM
- 27H. GoyesM
- 7J. PerlazaF
- 18J. Micolta PiedahitaF
- 1E. A. Cabezas QuinonezG
- 6M. S. JimenezD
- 2F. TorijanoD
- 23Y. GoezM
- 10D. ChavezM
- 29S. CordobaF
- 19P. Preciado
- 35F. MartinezM
- 26H. ValenciaD
- 99J. ParraG
- 22J. D. Cuesta SantosD
- 16J. CastanoD
- 30D. LondonoD
- 3A. CorreaD
- 23A. ColoradoM
- 20A. RoaM
- 7M. BarriosM
- 42J. QuinonesM
- 28M. ZuletaM
- 17D. MorenoF
- 12J. CamargoG
- 33J. PatinoD
- 6D. Marmolejo
- 5J. NietoM
- 15J. AlvaradoM
- 19T. RojasM
- 14J. A. Zapata RamirezM
- 29E. TorresF
- 21H. GuzmanF
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
Once Caldas
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas
- 20 September 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 13 March 2026Once Caldas 4–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 9 November 2025Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 2 October 2025Once Caldas 4–0 Deportivo PastoCopa Colombia
- 29 August 2025Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Once CaldasCopa Colombia
- 18 May 2025Deportivo Pasto 2–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno151
- J. Zapata112
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.