Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportes Tolima 1-1 America de Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Deportes Tolima, 33% draw, 32% America de Cali — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 28E. LopezD
- 3J. AnguloD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 17C. ArrietaM
- 14H. E. Martinez YepezM
- 24A. Parra OsorioM
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 20J. HernandezM
- 15S. AguayoF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 71Y. OsorioD
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 25S. CabezasD
- 32S. GuzmanM
- 16V. ReyesM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 7J. HurtadoF
- 18K. FlorezF
- 12J. MontoyaG
- 18Y. QuinteroD
- 24C. TovarD
- 3D. RoseroD
- 30O. BertelD
- 15R. CarrascalM
- 5J. EscobarM
- 23L. QuinonesM
- 10Y. GuzmanM
- 7J. MurilloM
- 21T. AngelF
- 37A. ToroG
- 22N. HernandezD
- 2M. TorresD
- 14M. MinaD
- 77E. TortoleroM
- 6J. CavadiaM
- 31J. Aponza
- 9D. ValenciaF
- 88J. PalaciosF
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali
Deportes Tolima
No earlier matches on record this season.
America de Cali
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali
- 20 September 2026Deportes Tolima 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 15 March 2026America de Cali 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 9 August 2025America de Cali 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 June 2025America de Cali 1–3 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 7 June 2025Deportes Tolima 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 24 February 2025Deportes Tolima 0–0 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and America de Cali
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.