Dundalk
vs
St Patrick's Athletic
Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athletic.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Dundalk, 27% draw, 43% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dundalk 1.31, St Patrick's Athletic 1.84.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 43% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Line-ups
- 1E. MinogueG
- 12L. MulliganD
- 44T. GrivostiD
- 16E. VasseninD
- 3B. BurnsD
- 6A. DervinM
- 11R. TeahanM
- 15T. ClarkeM
- 8H. GroomeM
- 7D. HorganM
- 9C. DillonF
- 13P. CherrieG
- 10Leonardo GaxhaF
- 23A. M. KeoghM
- 27D. McDaidM
- 35S. SafaeiG
- 19Sean SpaightD
- 17S. TraceyM
- 5H. WarrenD
- 31J. WilsonD
- 94J. AnangG
- 4J. RedmondD
- 2S. HoareD
- 24L. TurnerD
- 6J. LennonM
- 7Z. ElbouzediM
- 48R. SheridanM
- 19B. BaggleyM
- 3A. BreslinM
- 21A. OlusanyaF
- 9A. KeenaF
- 1D. RogersG
- 17R. PalmerM
- 16D. NugentM
- 33S. McHaleD
- 11J. McClellandF
- 8C. ForresterM
- 27R. EdmondsonF
- 23J. BrownD
- 35S. RooneyF
Form going into Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
- L1-2Galway United21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers7 August 2026
St Patrick's Athletic
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
- L0-2Waterford28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Drogheda United21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shelbourne9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundalk | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 25 | +26 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
- 14 September 2026Dundalk 0–4 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 24 July 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 6 April 2026Dundalk 2–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 27 February 2026St Patrick's Athletic 4–0 DundalkPremier Division
- 5 September 2024Dundalk 1–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 3 June 2024St Patrick's Athletic 2–3 DundalkPremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
- D. Horgan10 goals10 assists
- G. Arubi7 goals3 assists
St Patrick's Athletic
- R. Edmondson10 goals1 assists
- A. Keena9 goals4 assists
- K. Leavy6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for Dundalk and 1.84 for St Patrick's Athletic; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Aidan Keena 21' (St Patrick's Athletic), Aidan Keena 37' (St Patrick's Athletic), Ryan Sheridan 75' (St Patrick's Athletic), Ryan Edmondson 82' (St Patrick's Athletic).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Patrick's Athletic the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dundalk against 1.84 for St Patrick's Athletic. Dundalk's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.58 for St Patrick's Athletic.