Regular Season - 30 · 14 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Shelbourne vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result

Tolka Park, Dublin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Shelbourne 1-2 Drogheda United.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 29% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.44, Drogheda United 1.06.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United

50%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Shelbourne at 41% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shelbourne0%Draw5%Drogheda United95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Sean Boydout: Rodrigo Costa Freitas
10'
⚽Daniel Kellyassist: Sean Moore
22'
40'
⚽Warren Davisassist: ethan brien o
Kerr Mcinroy
44'
57'
⚽Leo Burneyassist: Brandon Kavanagh
🔁Evan Caffreyout: Alistair Coote
61'
🔁Rodrigo Costa Freitasout: Ademipo Odubeko
61'
68'
🔁Brandon Kavanaghout: Shane Farrell
68'
🔁Thomas Oluwaout: Mark Doyle
68'
Alfie Bates
🔁Sean Mooreout: will jarvis
69'
79'
🔁Warren Davisout: Ryan Markey
Alistair Coote
80'
will jarvis
83'
89'
🔁Alfie Batesout: Ryan Brennan

Match stats — Shelbourne vs Drogheda United

66%Possession34%
21Shots10
5On target4
7Corners1

Line-ups

Shelbourne 4-2-3-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 25M. MbengD
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18James Barry NorrisD
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 22S. MooreM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 17D. KellyM
  • 9S. BoydF
Substitutes
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 36W. JarvisM
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 44Daniel RingF
  • 55James RocheD
  • 31C. WalshG
  • 20R. FreitasF
Coach: J. Russell
Drogheda United 3-5-2
  • 1L. DennisonG
  • 4A. QuinnD
  • 22C. KeeleyD
  • 5Leo BurneyD
  • 2E. AgbajeM
  • 15A. BatesM
  • 10B. KavanaghM
  • 8Ethan O'BrienM
  • 3C. KaneM
  • 24W. DavisF
  • 11T. OluwaF
Substitutes
  • 14M. DoyleF
  • 17S. FarrellM
  • 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  • 31K. CruiseD
  • 19R. BrennanM
  • 29J. BrennanD
  • 32D. MareD
  • 25R. MarkeyF
  • 33S. McGrathM
Coach: K. Doherty

Form going into Shelbourne vs Drogheda United

Shelbourne

  • L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Galway United28 August 2026
  • L1-2St Patrick's Athletic9 August 2026

Drogheda United

  • W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
  • L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
  • L0-2St Patrick's Athletic21 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Galway United7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Shelbourne30812103842-436
9Drogheda United31810133749-1234

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United

  • 14 September 2026Shelbourne 1–2 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 19 June 2026Drogheda United 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 24 April 2026Shelbourne 3–4 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 27 February 2026Drogheda United 1–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 22 September 2025Drogheda United 2–1 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 19 May 2025Shelbourne 0–0 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Drogheda United

Shelbourne

  • H. Wood7 goals5 assists
  • J. Martin6 goals2 assists
  • D. Kelly6 goals

Drogheda United

  • M. Doyle8 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Shelbourne and 1.06 for Drogheda United; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Daniel Kelly 22' (Shelbourne), Warren Davis 40' (Drogheda United), Leo Burney 57' (Drogheda United).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Shelbourne the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shelbourne against 1.06 for Drogheda United. Shelbourne's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.97 for Drogheda United.