Sligo Rovers
vs
Galway United
Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Sligo Rovers 1-3 Galway United.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sligo Rovers, 29% draw, 34% Galway United — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 1.45, Galway United 1.33.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sligo Rovers vs Galway United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sligo Rovers at 37% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sligo Rovers vs Galway United
Line-ups
- 1Liam John HughesG
- 51Aidan GabbidonD
- 52G. McElroyD
- 16C. McHughD
- 3Sean StewartD
- 6L. YoungM
- 50Ruben GillespieM
- 10A. MeekisonM
- 14J. McManusM
- 7J. ShorrockM
- 11C. KavanaghF
- 15O. DenhamD
- 23K. McDonaghM
- 9L. PearceF
- 29S. SargeantG
- 41K. WooleryF
- 77Kevin ZefiF
- 61Conor CannonD
- 24J. O'DonnellF
- 49Jamie O'MalleyD
- 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
- 15O. WilliamsD
- 2A. O'ConnorD
- 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
- 20L. DevittM
- 3Connor BarrattM
- 10D. HurleyM
- 8A. BolgerM
- 4J. KeohaneM
- 11K. TwardekF
- 7S. WalshF
- 23F. PierrotF
- 24E. McCarthyM
- 9F. LombotoF
- 17Junior ThiamM
- 30A. KazeemD
- 54C. WhittakerM
- 28J. MorahanD
- 21D. ConnollyF
- 32Vincent AngeliniG
Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Galway United
Sligo Rovers
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
- D0-0Waterford21 August 2026
- L0-2away to Derry City7 August 2026
Galway United
- L2-3Bohemians11 September 2026
- D1-1Shelbourne28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Dundalk21 August 2026
- D0-0Drogheda United7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 23 |
| 6 | Galway United | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Galway United
- 14 September 2026Sligo Rovers 1–3 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 11 July 2026Galway United 3–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 16 May 2026Sligo Rovers 1–4 Galway UnitedPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Galway United 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 24 January 2026Sligo Rovers 6–0 Galway UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2025Galway United 0–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Galway United
Sligo Rovers
- C. Kavanagh6 goals2 assists
Galway United
- K. Twardek8 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.33 for Galway United; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Cian Kavanagh 8' (Sligo Rovers), Jimmy Keohane 18' (Galway United), Stephen Walsh 39' (Galway United), Jimmy Keohane 86' (Galway United).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sligo Rovers the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sligo Rovers against 1.33 for Galway United. Sligo Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.28 for Galway United.