FF Jaro
vs
Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: FF Jaro 2–1 Mariehamn
The model makes it 40% FF Jaro, 26% draw, 34% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 1.58, Mariehamn 1.42.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Mariehamn 2–0 FF Jaro.
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FF Jaro at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
FF Jaro
- W1-0away to Turku PS10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
- D1-1SJK12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
Mariehamn
- D1-1Ilves10 October 2026
- L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
- W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.
- FF Jaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
- 31 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 23 May 2026FF Jaro 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 28 September 2025FF Jaro 2–3 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 6 July 2025FF Jaro 1–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 5 April 2025Mariehamn 0–2 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 17 September 2015FF Jaro 0–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FF Jaro carry a model rating of 5.89 against 5.92 for Mariehamn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for FF Jaro and 1.42 for Mariehamn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FF Jaro rate 0.37 in attack and 2.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mariehamn rate 0.40 and 2.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FF Jaro the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FF Jaro against 1.42 for Mariehamn. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.57 for Mariehamn.
Season stats
FF Jaro at home · Mariehamn away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: FF Jaro 25, Mariehamn 25.
FF Jaro score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Mariehamn have let in 7 there.
Mariehamn score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FF Jaro have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.