KuPS
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: KuPS 2–0 VPS
The model makes it 55% KuPS, 25% draw, 20% VPS — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: KuPS 1.95, VPS 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to KuPS: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- KuPS are 3rd on 48 points from 27 games; VPS are 5th on 39 points from 27 games — Veikkausliiga.
- KuPS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Inter Turku.
- VPS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gnistan.
- Last 6 meetings: KuPS 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended VPS 0–2 KuPS.
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: KuPS vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KuPS vs VPS
KuPS
- L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
VPS
- W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
- L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | KuPS | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 48 |
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
KuPS
Chance to finish top of the Championship Group · 11% today
From our Veikkausliiga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: KuPS vs VPS
- 19 September 2026VPS 0–2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
- 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
- 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: KuPS and VPS
KuPS
GoalsAssists
- J. Moreno50
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba31
- B. Armah30
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.12 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for KuPS and 0.95 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.60 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.45 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KuPS a 10.6% chance of the title and VPS 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for KuPS against 0.95 for VPS. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.95 for VPS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KuPS at home · VPS away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: KuPS 27, VPS 27.
KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); VPS have let in 8 there.
VPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); KuPS have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
KuPS
- at Borac Banja Luka22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%
- at HJK Helsinki25 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 33%
- vs Gnistan29 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 51%
- at AC Oulu1 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 48%
- vs Gent5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 18%
VPS
- vs Inter Turku24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 22%
- at AC Oulu28 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 34%
- vs HJK Helsinki2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 28%
- at Gnistan8 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.