Velež
vs
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Velež 0–1 Borac Banja Luka
The model makes it 19% Velež, 26% draw, 55% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Velež 0.78, Borac Banja Luka 1.73.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Borac Banja Luka are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Velež are 9th on 8 points from 9 games; Borac Banja Luka are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to BSK Banja Luka.
- Last 6 meetings: Borac Banja Luka 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Borac Banja Luka 3–1 Velež.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Velež vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borac Banja Luka at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Velež vs Borac Banja Luka
Velež
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
Borac Banja Luka
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sloga Doboj16 September 2026
- W1-0Zrinjski12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FK Sarajevo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
- Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Velež
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
Borac Banja Luka
Chance to win the league · 54% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Velež vs Borac Banja Luka
- 9 August 2026Borac Banja Luka 3–1 VeležPremijer Liga
- 18 April 2026Borac Banja Luka 2–2 VeležPremijer Liga
- 7 February 2026Velež 0–0 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 19 October 2025Borac Banja Luka 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 3 August 2025Velež 1–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 10 May 2025Borac Banja Luka 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
A clear gap in the ratings
Velež carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.59 for Borac Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.78 goals for Velež and 1.73 for Borac Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velež rate 0.39 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borac Banja Luka rate 0.73 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Velež a 0% chance of the title and Borac Banja Luka 53.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Velež against 1.73 for Borac Banja Luka. Velež's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.23 for Borac Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velež at home · Borac Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Velež 9, Borac Banja Luka 9.
Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 2 there.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Velež have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Velež
- vs BSK Banja Luka24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 43%
- at Sloga Doboj31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 35%
- vs Čelik7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 38%
- at Radnik Bijeljina21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
Borac Banja Luka
- vs KuPS22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 56%
- vs Sloga Doboj24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 78%
- at Čelik31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 52%
- at Mjallby AIF5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 40%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.