Ilves
vs
SJK
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Ilves 2–1 SJK
The model makes it 49% Ilves, 23% draw, 28% SJK — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Ilves 2.15, SJK 1.52.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Ilves 2–2 SJK.
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ilves vs SJK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ilves vs SJK
Ilves
- D1-1away to Mariehamn10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
SJK
- W1-0Lahti9 October 2026
- W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
What these results say
- Ilves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SJK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Ilves vs SJK
- 27 June 2026Ilves 2–2 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 2 May 2026SJK 1–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 18 February 2026Ilves 3–1 SJKLeague Cup
- 3 November 2025Ilves 3–3 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 4 October 2025SJK 2–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 5 July 2025SJK 1–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Ilves and SJK
Ilves
GoalsAssists
- T. Hytönen80
- J. Kanga43
- E. Tamminen32
SJK
GoalsAssists
- E. Mastokangas22
- J. Streng21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ilves carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.14 for SJK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Ilves and 1.52 for SJK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ilves rate 0.63 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SJK rate 0.50 and 2.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Ilves against 1.52 for SJK. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.05 for SJK.
Season stats
Ilves at home · SJK away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: Ilves 25, SJK 26.
SJK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Ilves have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.