Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Once Caldas 1-3 Bucaramanga.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Once Caldas, 31% draw, 32% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga
Line-ups
- 12J. CamargoG
- 22J. CuestaD
- 16J. CastañoD
- 30D. LondoñoD
- 3A. CorreaD
- 23A. ColoradoM
- 15J. AlvaradoM
- 14J. ZapataM
- 20A. RoaM
- 21H. GuzmanM
- 17D. MorenoF
- 9Pipe GómezF
- 19T. GarcíaM
- 31Jorman BeltranM
- 6D. MarmolejoM
- 4E. NavarroD
- 5J. NietoM
- 99J. ParraG
- 33J. PatiñoD
- 29E. TorresF
- 12D. NovoaG
- 24J. OrtizD
- 23C. RomañaD
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 6N. CastrillónM
- 21F. CharrupíM
- 22F. CastroM
- 8F. HinestrozaM
- 10F. SambuezaM
- 17E. BatallaM
- 27L. PonsF
- 16L. MatheusG
- 19A. GutiérrezD
- 5A. MurriloF
- 32N. RamírezM
- 3M. ReaD
- 11F. SalazarF
- 28L. FloresM
- 30V. CantilloM
- 9B. CaicedoF
Form going into Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
Bucaramanga
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga
- 26 September 2026Once Caldas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 19 March 2026Bucaramanga 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 10 September 2025Bucaramanga 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 9 February 2025Once Caldas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 11 August 2024Once Caldas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 10 February 2024Bucaramanga 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno151
- J. Zapata112
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.