Chico vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Chico 3-0 Deportivo Pasto.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Chico, 31% draw, 36% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
Line-ups
- 1D. AgudeloG
- 15S. NavarroD
- 5J. AlomíaD
- 4J. MenaD
- 14C. BlancoD
- 8S. SalazarM
- 6J. DíazM
- 21J. PimentelM
- 17E. SarriaF
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 16S. MeraF
- 20Sebastián ViverosM
- 7F. CifuentesF
- 10Y. CabreraM
- 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
- 2D. PolancoD
- 11D. RamírezM
- 23J. PeñalozaM
- 12B. ZapataG
- 29Luis CarabalíF
- 12G. BangueraG
- 33M. GaravitoD
- 21Derik OsedeD
- 2F. TorijanoD
- 3J. OssaD
- 18J. MicoltaM
- 25F. LeysM
- 8E. SerjeM
- 27H. GoyesM
- 10D. ChávezF
- 29S. CórdobaF
- 13Luis Felipe Marquínez ValverdeG
- 26H. ValenciaD
- 7J. PerlazaM
- 32M. PisanoM
- 15H. MancillaM
- 42Eder Daniel Gómez De La RosaF
- 23Y. GóezM
- 5N. GilD
- 22Y. TolosaF
Form going into Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
Chico
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
Deportivo Pasto
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
- 25 September 2026Chico 3–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 18 March 2026Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 5 September 2025Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 26 July 2025Chico 2–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 22 March 2025Chico 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 12 February 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–0 ChicoPrimera A
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.