Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Millonarios.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Atletico Nacional, 28% draw, 24% Millonarios — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
Line-ups
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 6A. RománD
- 3N. ParraD
- 15A. ReyesD
- 16W. TesilloD
- 22E. CabreraM
- 26F. MarinM
- 99I. PovedaM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 7M. MorenoM
- 17C. ArangoF
- 4C. HaydarD
- 20M. CascoD
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 30K. ParraM
- 27Y. PerlazaD
- 31X. RiosM
- 23J. RodríguezM
- 29A. SarmientoF
- 24J. RosaF
- 1J. BurraiG
- 2C. SarabiaD
- 4S. BarreiroD
- 6S. MosqueraD
- 20D. BangueroD
- 13F. ChaverraD
- 24J. AnguloM
- 28S. VegaM
- 18R. UreñaM
- 10D. RuizF
- 11A. EstupiñánF
- 26A. LlinásD
- 3M. Diaz SamuelD
- 35Sebastián MosqueraF
- 14D. SilvaM
- 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
- 30S. del CastilloM
- 23L. CastroF
- 17J. AriasD
- 12J. AguirreG
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
Atletico Nacional
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
Millonarios
- W3-0Chico19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cucuta14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
- 25 September 2026Atletico Nacional 1–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 18 March 2026Millonarios 3–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 5 March 2026Atletico Nacional 1–3 MillonariosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 28 September 2025Atletico Nacional 2–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 17 June 2025Atletico Nacional 0–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 6 June 2025Millonarios 0–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Millonarios
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento86
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán174
- L. Castro114
- R. Contreras101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.