Real Sociedad
vs
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Real Sociedad, 27% draw, 31% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.81, Bournemouth 1.40.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 42% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth
Real Sociedad
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
Bournemouth
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Real Sociedad and Bournemouth in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | Premier League | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: La Liga · Premier League
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Bournemouth
Real Sociedad
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Bournemouth
- M. Tavernier3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Sociedad carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.93 for Bournemouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.40 for Bournemouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad rate 1.03 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bournemouth rate 1.24 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.4 for Bournemouth. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/1.08 for Bournemouth.