Lillestrom
vs
Torreense
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 1-2 Torreense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 26% Torreense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.66, Torreense 1.00.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Torreense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 45% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Torreense
Lillestrom
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
Torreense
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Lillestrom and Torreense in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 32 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Torreense has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Eliteserien · UEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Torreense
Lillestrom
- Vá5 goals5 assists
Torreense
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.43 for Torreense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Lillestrom and 1.00 for Torreense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.74 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torreense rate 0.59 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1 for Torreense. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.38 for Torreense.