Crystal Palace
vs
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 24% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 2.30, Lech Poznan 1.23.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crystal Palace at 51% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 637 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier League · Ekstraklasa
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace
- T. Mitchell2 goals
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.74 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.23 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 1.26 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 0.90 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crystal Palace the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.23 for Lech Poznan. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 1.26/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.12 for Lech Poznan.