Beşiktaş
vs
Marseille
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Beşiktaş, 28% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.63, Marseille 1.40.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Beşiktaş vs Marseille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 39% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Marseille
Beşiktaş
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
- W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026
Marseille
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Marseille
Beşiktaş
- D. Vlahović4 goals
- V. Černý2 goals
Marseille
- A. Gouiri4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.89 for Marseille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.40 for Marseille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 0.98 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marseille rate 1.10 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 1.4 for Marseille. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.02 for Marseille.