Orlando Pirates
vs
Durban City
Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Orlando Pirates 2-0 Durban City.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Orlando Pirates, 26% draw, 24% Durban City — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando Pirates 2.04, Durban City 1.06.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 50% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 637 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
Line-ups
- 24S. ChaineG
- 36K. SebelebeleD
- 6L. SeemaD
- 5N. SibisiD
- 3N. NdabaD
- 29M. MthiyaneM
- 33T. MokobodiM
- 49K. KgosietsileM
- 48S. MasilelaM
- 11T. MoremiM
- 9Y. MbuthumaF
- 12O. AppollisF
- 32S. DladlaG
- 41B. MabuzaD
- 15M. NemtajelaM
- 38Mpho PadimeF
- 31S. PedersenF
- 19N. RapooD
- 20S. SelepeM
- 37S. ZuluD
- 33F. AsareG
- 2B. ShanduD
- 4F. GcabaD
- 5S. NcananaD
- 27Siyabonga MsomiD
- 24J. MokoneD
- 17K. JurgensM
- 18B. PoggenpoelM
- 23Tylo SangerM
- 20Jean LwambaF
- 8G. SirinoF
- 3Bongani MthembuM
- 26T. NodadaM
- 10S. MasekoM
- 13Seth GreenM
- 34A. DreyerG
- 7H. DomingoM
- 28E. BrooksM
- 40Junior PapierF
- 9T. MorrisF
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
Orlando Pirates
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
- W3-0away to Chippa United16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Amazulu12 August 2026
Durban City
- D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kruger United25 August 2026
- D1-1Richards Bay15 August 2026
- D0-0Golden Arrows12 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 13 |
| 9 | Durban City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
- 8 August 2026Orlando Pirates 2–1 Durban City8 Cup
- 16 May 2026Orlando Pirates 0–0 Durban CityPremier Soccer League
- 29 November 2025Durban City 0–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and Durban City
Orlando Pirates
- O. Appollis2 goals2 assists
- B. Radiopane2 goals1 assists
- Y. Mbuthuma2 goals
Durban City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.04 goals for Orlando Pirates and 1.06 for Durban City; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lebone Seema 57' (Orlando Pirates), Tshepang Moremi 69' (Orlando Pirates).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Orlando Pirates against 1.06 for Durban City. Orlando Pirates's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.46 for Durban City.