Malaga
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-3 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Malaga, 30% draw, 34% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.29, Villarreal 1.24.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Malaga vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malaga at 36% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Villarreal
Malaga
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Villarreal
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Villarreal
- 1 April 2018Malaga 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 5 November 2017Villarreal 2–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 12 February 2017Villarreal 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 10 September 2016Malaga 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 13 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 23 September 2015Malaga 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.91 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Malaga and 1.24 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.80 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.12 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malaga a 0% chance of the title and Villarreal 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malaga the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Malaga against 1.24 for Villarreal. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.99 for Villarreal.