Real Betis
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Betis 1-0 Getafe.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Real Betis, 28% draw, 22% Getafe — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Real Betis 1.76, Getafe 0.82.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Real Betis vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 50% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 637 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Betis vs Getafe
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 12Ángel OrtizD
- 4NatanD
- 16V. GómezD
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 18N. DeossaM
- 6F. BernalM
- 7AntonyM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 19T. ParrottF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 9C. HernándezF
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 13David SoriaG
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 24Z. RomeroD
- 3DavinchiD
- 8N. GudeljM
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 23O. MangalaM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 20Iván AzónF
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 15S. BoselliD
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 31M. HamdouneD
- 32JoseluF
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 30Óscar LópezM
- 22J. MojicaD
- 4S. SazonovD
Form going into Real Betis vs Getafe
Real Betis
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
Getafe
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Getafe
- 17 September 2026Real Betis 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 8 March 2026Getafe 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 21 December 2025Real Betis 4–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 23 February 2025Getafe 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 18 September 2024Real Betis 2–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Real Betis 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for Real Betis and 0.82 for Getafe; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Abde Ezzalzouli 45' (Real Betis).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Real Betis against 0.82 for Getafe. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.03 for Getafe.