Regular Season - 9 · 17 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Rostov vs Dynamo Premier League prediction & result

Rostov Arena, Rostov
Full time0 – 3

Final score: FC Rostov 0-3 Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% FC Rostov, 27% draw, 47% Dynamo — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.08, Dynamo 1.87.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: FC Rostov vs Dynamo

57%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 10%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo at 47% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Rostov0%Draw1%Dynamo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Juan Caceres
8'
Arthur Gomes
David Semenchuk
16'
26'
🔁Juan Caceresout: Nicolas Marichal
35'
⚽Konstantin Tyukavinassist: Yaroslav Gladyshev
45'
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Viktor Okishor
53'
Nicolas Marichal
🔁David Semenchukout: Yaroslav Mikhailov
60'
🔁Maksim Mukhinout: Daniil Shantaliy
67'
69'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Daniil Fomin
69'
🔁Luis Chavezout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
78'
⚽Viktor Okishorassist: Daniil Fomin
🔁Olakunle Olusegunout: Daniil Khlusevich
79'
🔁Ronaldoout: Imran Aznaurov
79'
🔁Ivan Komarovout: Anton Shamonin
79'
88'
⚽Konstantin Tyukavin (pen)
90'
🔁Konstantin Tyukavinout: Ivan Sergeev

Match stats — FC Rostov vs Dynamo

40%Possession60%
12Shots12
3On target6
4Corners4

Line-ups

FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 10I. KomarovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 78D. ChistyakovD
  • 11Ibraheem AjasaF
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 26D. KhlusevichD
  • 80K. MadrakhimovF
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
  • 13D. TitovM
Coach: Jonatan Alba
Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 4J. CáceresD
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 24L. ChávezM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 91Y. GladyshevF
  • 70K. TyukavinF
  • 11Arthur GomesF
Substitutes
  • 6R. FernándezD
  • 74D. FominM
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 33I. SergeevF
Coach: S. Schwarz

Form going into FC Rostov vs Dynamo

FC Rostov

  • L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
  • W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026

Dynamo

  • W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
  • W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
  • W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Rostov92251017-78
2Dynamo9612148+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Dynamo

  • 14 March 2026FC Rostov 0–1 DynamoPremier League
  • 26 July 2025Dynamo 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
  • 2 March 2025FC Rostov 1–1 DynamoPremier League
  • 1 November 2024Dynamo 1–1 FC RostovPremier League
  • 29 March 2024Dinamo Moscow 1–4 FC RostovPremier League
  • 3 September 2023FC Rostov 1–2 Dinamo MoscowPremier League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.08 goals for FC Rostov and 1.87 for Dynamo; the game produced 0 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Konstantin Tyukavin 35' (Dynamo), Viktor Okishor 78' (Dynamo), Konstantin Tyukavin 88' (Dynamo).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.87 for Dynamo. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.45 for Dynamo.