Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Makhachkala 1-3 CSKA Moscow.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Dinamo Makhachkala, 28% draw, 37% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.47, CSKA Moscow 1.53.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 37% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
Line-ups
- 39T. MagomedovG
- 13S. KagermazovD
- 24A. AlarcónD
- 99M. AlibekovD
- 23M. MakhamadjonovD
- 16H. MrezigueM
- 6M. ApshatsevM
- 47N. GlushkovM
- 52E. SmelovM
- 88D. LesovoyM
- 25G. AgalarovF
- 43I. AkhmedovD
- 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
- 10M. HosseinnezhadM
- 33N. KarabashevG
- 8V. KhubulovM
- 9R. MagomedovM
- 11MiroF
- 28S. SerderovF
- 1D. VolkG
- 49V. ToropG
- 21M. AzziD
- 4João VictorD
- 79M. ZeaD
- 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
- 3D. KrugovoyD
- 17K. GlebovM
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 31M. KislyakM
- 19I. OleynikovM
- 11T. MusaevF
- 20Matija PopovicM
- 7Matheus AlvesM
- 90M. LukinD
- 18D. KozlovM
- 37HenriqueM
- 32L. GondouF
- 62I. FirovF
- 61P. FilyushinD
- 39M. BoriskoG
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
CSKA Moscow
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
- 21 March 2026CSKA Moscow 3–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 26 November 2025CSKA Moscow 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 8 November 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 5 November 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 29 March 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 19 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov4 goals
- N. Glushkov2 goals2 assists
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.47 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.53 for CSKA Moscow; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Makhmud Makhamadzhonov 13' (CSKA Moscow), Gamid Agalarov 20' (Dinamo Makhachkala), Luciano Gondou 69' (CSKA Moscow), Imran Firov 79' (CSKA Moscow).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.53 for CSKA Moscow. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for CSKA Moscow.