Regular Season - 20 · 17 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Iberia 1999 2-1 Dila.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% FC Iberia 1999, 25% draw, 51% Dila — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 1.33, Dila 2.48.

Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila

68%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-2 9%1-1 8%1-3 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dila at 51% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 637 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Iberia 19995%Draw89%Dila6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lucas Oliveira Brune
16'
21'
🔁tedo kikabidzeout: Nelson Mike Puketi
aleksandre amisulashvili
32'
33'
Otar Parulava
39'
araujo joao
46'
🔁Georgiy Kobakhidzeout: Shota Shekiladze
Nikoloz Dadiani
50'
56'
🔁Otar Parulavaout: Kristaps Grabovskis
58'
araujo joao
⚽Nikoloz Dadiani (pen)
63'
Amiran Dzagania
66'
🔁Lucas Oliveira Bruneout: Vakho Bedoshvili
66'
Vakho Bedoshvili
68'
74'
🔁Mohamed Kantéout: badri gogoberishvili
74'
🔁lasha menteshashviliout: Mouhamed Diouf
🔁nika sikharulashviliout: Giorgi Kutsia
78'
82'
⚽Mouhamed Dioufassist: Mamin Sanyang
🔁giorgi kobuladzeout: Nikoloz Botchorishvili
90'
🔁Zviad Natchkebiaout: marc jean tiboue
90'
🔁Amiran Dzaganiaout: Lado Chikhradze
90'
90+6'
Mamin Sanyang
90+6'
Mamin Sanyang
⚽Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava (pen)
90+8'

Match stats — FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila

68%Possession32%
19Shots9
8On target5
4Corners4

Line-ups

FC Iberia 1999 4-2-3-1
  • 31G. MakaridzeG
  • 40G. KobuladzeD
  • 25A. AmisulashviliD
  • 4V. SelimovićD
  • 5J. JinjolavaD
  • 8B. KardavaM
  • 6N. DadianiM
  • 18Lucas BruneM
  • 19N. SikharulashviliM
  • 10Z. NatchkebiaF
  • 9A. DzaganiaF
Substitutes
  • 24V. BedoshviliF
  • 30N. BochorishviliD
  • 3P. CancarD
  • 29L. ChikhradzeF
  • 22S. FigueredoD
  • 23E. KulievM
  • 27G. KutsiaM
  • 1T. MegrelishviliG
  • 33marc jean tiboueD
Coach: A. Demchenko
Dila 3-4-1-2
  • 1D. KereselidzeG
  • 2T. KikabidzeD
  • 13João AraújoD
  • 25L. YarbroughD
  • 16M. SanyangF
  • 17B. AnoffM
  • 15G. KobakhidzeM
  • 14G. JalaghoniaD
  • 10O. ParulavaM
  • 9K. KefingF
  • 8L. MenteshashviliM
Substitutes
  • 5Nelson Mike PuketiD
  • 12L. SanikidzeG
  • 22Shota ShekiladzeF
  • 11K. GrabovskisF
  • 19B. GogoberishviliM
  • 33R. EtouD
  • 24Mouhamed DioufD
  • 21Z. MuselianiF
Coach: A. Vavalis

Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila

FC Iberia 1999

  • W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Batumi9 September 2026
  • W2-1Samgurali5 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Gagra31 August 2026

Dila

  • D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
  • W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FC Iberia 19992513483528+743
5Dila26114113429+537

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila

  • 17 September 2026FC Iberia 1999 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 6 May 2026Dila 0–1 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
  • 6 March 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 10 December 2025FC Iberia 1999 1–3 DilaDavid Kipiani Cup
  • 26 October 2025FC Iberia 1999 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 17 August 2025Dila 0–6 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.33 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 2.48 for Dila; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Nikoloz Dadiani 63' (FC Iberia 1999), Mouhamed Diouf 82' (Dila), Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava 90' (FC Iberia 1999).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dila the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 2.48 for Dila. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/2.05 for Dila.