Torpedo Kutaisi
vs
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Torpedo Kutaisi 3-2 Samgurali.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Torpedo Kutaisi, 28% draw, 33% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.66, Samgurali 1.45.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 39% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Line-ups
- 1O. GoshadzeG
- 15L. KupravaD
- 22D. BukiaD
- 4M. ŠimićD
- 33M. StamatovD
- 11G. ArabidzeM
- 8M. ItrakM
- 17N. LominadzeM
- 14Felipe PiresF
- 35D. DeisadzeM
- 9K. AndrićF
- 25G. GergedavaM
- 13G. KatkovD
- 28Nika KhatoyanF
- 31F. KljajićG
- 24L. LatsabidzeD
- 5T. NadaraiaD
- 39V. PinsonF
- 20D. SkorupM
- 29M. ChitaishviliM
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 7N. KhorkheliF
- 39RyanD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Dila22 August 2026
Samgurali
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
- W4-3away to Spaeri22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
- 14 September 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 3–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 13 June 2026Samgurali 2–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 6–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 24 January 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 2–1 SamguraliFriendlies Clubs
- 22 November 2025Samgurali 2–4 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Torpedo Kutaisi 6–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
- K. Andrić8 goals2 assists
- G. Arabidze5 goals8 assists
- Felipe Pires3 goals
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.66 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.45 for Samgurali; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Irakli Siradze 4' (Samgurali), Giorgi Arabidze 22' (Torpedo Kutaisi), Komnen Andrić 26' (Torpedo Kutaisi), Nodar Lominadze 67' (Torpedo Kutaisi), Omar patarkatsishvili 90' (Samgurali).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi against 1.45 for Samgurali. Torpedo Kutaisi's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.22 for Samgurali.