Dinamo Tbilisi
vs
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Tbilisi 4-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Dinamo Tbilisi, 32% draw, 23% Gagra — fair odds of 2.22, 3.13 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Tbilisi 1.36, Gagra 0.68.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 45% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 20Lucas FloresG
- 17P. PsaltisD
- 27N. KurdićD
- 13M. PourzitídisD
- 6Leonardo SantosD
- 8WeltonM
- 23J. KankavaM
- 22N. NinuaM
- 10G. KharaishviliM
- 7K. DoltmurzievF
- 14M. Do CoutoF
- 32L. TsikoliaM
- 11M. VatsadzeF
- 34M. GbomaduF
- 26G. GoguaM
- 33L. HouriM
- 39K. KakashviliM
- 18T. KvaratskheliaF
- 30G. Lomidze
- 37M. MakatsariaG
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 25WandersonM
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 15N. Slavitsky
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L0-3Rustavi15 August 2026
Gagra
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
- L0-3away to Rustavi22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
| 8 | Gagra | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
- 14 September 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 4–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 14 June 2026Gagra 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 21 November 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–4 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos2 goals2 assists
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.68 for Gagra; the game produced 4 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Nika Ninua 3' (Dinamo Tbilisi), Giorgi Kharaishvili 35' (Dinamo Tbilisi), Giorgi Kharaishvili 45' (Dinamo Tbilisi), Numan Kurdic 64' (Dinamo Tbilisi).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi against 0.68 for Gagra. Dinamo Tbilisi's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/1.94 for Gagra.