Regular Season - 26 · 14 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Meshakhte vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Agrano Vachadze Stadium
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Meshakhte 0-1 Rustavi.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Meshakhte, 33% draw, 35% Rustavi — fair odds of 3.13, 3.03 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Meshakhte 0.89, Rustavi 0.98.

Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Meshakhte vs Rustavi

37%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 16%0-1 14%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rustavi at 35% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Meshakhte0%Draw3%Rustavi97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
Shotiko Andghuladze
45'
⚽Luka·Parkadze
46'
🔁Shotiko Andghuladzeout: Nikoloz Chikovani
🔁Irakli Sikharulidzeout: Giorgi Gogolashvili
59'
🔁Giorgi Gegiaout: saba chkhetiani
59'
🔁tarik sikaloout: Tsotne·Patsatsia
59'
61'
🔁Luka·Parkadzeout: Davit Ubilava
🔁Giorgi Kantariaout: maksym pyrohov
64'
70'
🔁jeanout: Vazha Patsatsia
70'
🔁Yuta nakanoout: kevin ceijas
79'
🔁Avtandil gujabidzeout: Kakhaber Kakashvili
🔁beka gabiskiriaout: G. Jamarauli
86'
Lasha Ugrekhelidze
89'

Match stats — Meshakhte vs Rustavi

60%Possession40%
5Shots10
1On target3
2Corners1

Line-ups

Meshakhte 5-4-1
  • 29L. ShovnadzeG
  • 26B. GabiskiriaD
  • 31Eric PimentelD
  • 38I. ZotkoD
  • 40L. UgrekhelidzeD
  • 16G. GegiaD
  • 7E. JijavadzeM
  • 27G. KantariaM
  • 22T. ŠikaloM
  • 13G. BurduliD
  • 9I. SikharulidzeF
Substitutes
  • 24S. Chkhetiani
  • 10G. GogolashviliF
  • 8G. JamarauliM
  • 20L. KurdadzeD
  • 11M. KvirkviaF
  • 18T. PatsatsiaM
  • 30M. PyrogovM
  • 23B. ShubitidzeM
  • 1L. TkeshelashviliG
Rustavi 4-3-3
  • 21P. BeruashviliG
  • 27M. KapanadzeD
  • 4DavidD
  • 24I. IakobidzeD
  • 2S. AndghuladzeD
  • 22Y. NakanoM
  • 13A. GujabidzeM
  • 7K. S. AbdulM
  • 9JeanF
  • 10P. OseiF
  • 20L. ParkadzeM
Substitutes
  • 5Kevin William CeijasF
  • 19N. ChikovaniD
  • 23M. GambošM
  • 18N. JaparidzeF
  • 16Guri KakabadzeF
  • 8K. KakashviliM
  • 1S. KardavaG
  • 3V. PatsatsiaD
  • 40D. UbilavaD
Coach: G. Tsetsadze

Form going into Meshakhte vs Rustavi

Meshakhte

  • D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
  • D2-2Spaeri5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi31 August 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Batumi21 August 2026

Rustavi

  • D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
  • W3-0Gagra22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Meshakhte26210141943-2416
1Rustavi2613763221+1146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Meshakhte vs Rustavi

  • 14 September 2026Meshakhte 0–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 13 June 2026Rustavi 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
  • 22 April 2026Meshakhte 0–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 6 December 2025Rustavi 1–2 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
  • 5 October 2025Meshakhte 1–3 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
  • 11 August 2025Rustavi 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 0.89 goals for Meshakhte and 0.98 for Rustavi; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Luka·Parkadze 45' (Rustavi).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Meshakhte against 0.98 for Rustavi. Meshakhte's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.48 for Rustavi.