Železničar Pančevo
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Železničar Pančevo 1-2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Železničar Pančevo, 30% draw, 32% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 1.44, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Železničar Pančevo at 38% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Line-ups
- 1Z. PopovićG
- 19U. TegeltijaD
- 6M. MilikićD
- 5N. VidojevićD
- 33N. ĐuričićD
- 20J. JevremovićM
- 17A. KuljaninM
- 88C. LhernaultM
- 77K. ŠekularacM
- 10S. PedroM
- 90K. KwakuF
- 9L. AdžićM
- 26M. Amadou SaboM
- 21D. AnkeyeF
- 11N. JovanovićF
- 63S. ObradovićD
- 95S. PlavšićM
- 47Yassin SbaiF
- 12A. YusifD
- 70Leo AgostinhoF
- 1MatheusG
- 45S. GudeljD
- 13M. VeljkovićD
- 3Y. NakayamaD
- 6M. BajoM
- 60M. GashtarovM
- 14O. BukariM
- 70M. ChamM
- 22V. KostovM
- 37V. LučićM
- 9B. DiengF
- 27M. StrikaD
- 32D. LuckassenD
- 75L. LoizouF
- 10A. KataiM
- 7M. ArnautovićF
- 4M. IvanićM
- 20Tomás HändelM
- 21T. ElšnikM
- 8K. BalovF
Form going into Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Železničar Pančevo
- W2-0Macva11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Novi Pazar4 September 2026
- W5-1Radnik Surdulica29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vojvodina23 August 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Zemun30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Železničar Pančevo vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 22 April 2026Železničar Pančevo 2–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 14 February 2026Železničar Pančevo 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 14 September 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 7–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 26 February 2025Železničar Pančevo 1–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 27 September 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 14 April 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Železničar Pančevo and FK Crvena Zvezda
Železničar Pančevo
- K. Kwaku3 goals2 assists
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Železničar Pančevo and 1.22 for FK Crvena Zvezda; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Miloš Veljković 13' (FK Crvena Zvezda), Mirko Milikic 45' (Železničar Pančevo), Loizos Loizou 89' (FK Crvena Zvezda).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Železničar Pančevo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 1.22 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.32 for FK Crvena Zvezda.