Regular Season - 9 · 17 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Akron vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

Samara Arena, Samara
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Akron 2-0 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Akron, 26% draw, 29% Akhmat — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Akron 2.07, Akhmat 1.41.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Akron vs Akhmat

67%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 9%2-1 9%2-0 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Akron at 45% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Akron99%Draw1%Akhmat0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
•Egas Cacintura
⚽Gilson Benchimolassist: Roberto Fernández
5'
Marat Bokoev
17'
37'
•Georgiy Melkadze
37'
Georgiy Melkadze
45+4'
Júlio Romão
45+4'
•Miroslav Bogosavac
45+5'
Ousmane N'Dong
60'
Lechi Sadulaev
63'
🔁Lechi Sadulaevout: Sergey Pryakhin
63'
🔁Júlio Romãoout: Manuel Keliano
69'
🔁Ismael Silvaout: Mohamed Konate
🔁Dudu Rodriguesout: karlen hovhannisyan
70'
🔁Konstantin Maradishviliout: Arseniy Dmitriev
70'
73'
Kalidou Sidibe
76'
Mohamed Konate
🔁Kristijan Bistrovićout: Khetag Khosonov
81'
🔁Slobodan Tedićout: Artem Shumanskiy
81'
Stefan Loncar
85'
86'
🔁Maksim Samorodovout: Kirill Shchetinin
86'
🔁Arsen Adamovout: Erald maksuti
⚽karlen hovhannisyan
87'
karlen hovhannisyan
89'
🔁Gilson Benchimolout: Maksim Boldyrev
90+1'

Match stats — Akron vs Akhmat

62%Possession38%
16Shots7
4On target3
6Corners5

Line-ups

Akron 4-3-3
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 13V. BardybakhinD
  • 26João EscovalD
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernándezD
  • 8K. BistrovićM
  • 15S. LončarM
  • 22K. MaradishviliM
  • 11DuduF
  • 9S. TedićF
  • 7Gilson BenchimolF
Substitutes
  • 91M. BoldyrevM
  • 10Kevin ArevaloM
  • 69A. DmitrievF
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 80K. KhosonovM
  • 24I. NedelcearuD
  • 71D. PestryakovF
  • 89D. PopenkovM
  • 2Y. RochaD
Coach: S. Blagojević
Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibéD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 18Júlio RomãoM
  • 11Ismael Silva LimaM
  • 20M. SamorodovM
  • 17Egas CacinturaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
Substitutes
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 88G. SheliaG
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 19S. PryakhinM
  • 90O. NdongD
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 76E. MaksutiF
  • 13M. KonatéF
  • 23G. KenzhebekM
Coach: S. Cherchesov

Form going into Akron vs Akhmat

Akron

  • D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
  • D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
  • L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026

Akhmat

  • W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
  • D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
  • W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Akron91531118-78
10Akhmat92431313010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Akron vs Akhmat

  • 15 March 2026Akron 1–1 AkhmatPremier League
  • 27 September 2025Akhmat 3–0 AkronPremier League
  • 11 May 2025Akron 3–2 AkhmatPremier League
  • 31 August 2024Akhmat 0–0 AkronPremier League

Leading scorers: Akron and Akhmat

Akron

  • Gilson Benchimol3 goals2 assists

Akhmat

  • Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
  • G. Melkadze3 goals
  • L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.07 goals for Akron and 1.41 for Akhmat; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Gilson Benchimol 5' (Akron), karlen hovhannisyan 87' (Akron).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Akron the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Akron against 1.41 for Akhmat. Akron's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.99 for Akhmat.