Levski Sofia
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Levski Sofia, 26% draw, 27% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.06, Red Bull Salzburg 1.24.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 47% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg
Levski Sofia
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC26 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W3-0Mjallby AIF27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF20 August 2026
- D3-3away to Pafos13 August 2026
- W1-0Pafos6 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.54 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.24 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.79 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.84 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Red Bull Salzburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 1.24 for Red Bull Salzburg. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.6 for Red Bull Salzburg.