League Two

1. Salford City — 19 points from 10 played (6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
2. Barnet — 18 points from 8 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost), 20 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: D D W W W.
3. Crewe — 18 points from 10 played (4 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost), 12 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D D D W W.
4. Gillingham — 16 points from 10 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 15 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: W W L D W.
5. York — 15 points from 9 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 17 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: D W L W D.
6. Walsall — 15 points from 9 played (3 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost), 12 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: D D W D D.
7. Chesterfield — 15 points from 10 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 17 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W L W D.
8. Cheltenham — 15 points from 10 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 16 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W D W L L.
9. Bristol Rovers — 15 points from 10 played (5 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
10. Rochdale — 14 points from 10 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 11 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W W W D.
11. Grimsby — 13 points from 10 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W W L L L.
12. Newport County — 13 points from 10 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D D W D W.
13. Tranmere — 12 points from 10 played (2 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D D L D.
14. Exeter City — 12 points from 10 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 6 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D L W W.
15. Accrington Stanley — 11 points from 10 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost), 13 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L D D W D.
16. Fleetwood Town — 11 points from 10 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D L L L D.
17. Swindon Town — 11 points from 10 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 9 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
18. Shrewsbury — 11 points from 10 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 9 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: W D D W L.
19. Colchester — 10 points from 9 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L D D D L.
20. Rotherham — 10 points from 10 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 12 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D W D L L.
21. Oldham — 8 points from 9 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 9 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L L L L D.
22. Port Vale — 8 points from 8 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 4 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L W L W.
23. Northampton — 7 points from 8 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 4 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D W L L D.
24. Crawley Town — 5 points from 8 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 8 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: D L L L D.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-12, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 14 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Barnet — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 0.2%.
• Bristol Rovers — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 1.3%.
• Colchester — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 1.4%; bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 10.3%.
• Crawley Town — bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 59.8%.
• Exeter City — bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 4%.

Season projection

Every one of the 438 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-12, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barnet — projected to finish on 84.9 points, from 18 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 39.8%, finishes top three 68.2%, bottom two 0%.
2. Salford City — projected to finish on 77.5 points, from 19 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 13.3% (down 0.1), finishes top three 41.5%, bottom two 0.1%.
3. York — projected to finish on 75.7 points, from 15 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 13%, finishes top three 37.3%, bottom two 0.4%.
4. Crewe — projected to finish on 73.2 points, from 18 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.2%, finishes top three 25.8%, bottom two 0.2%.
5. Chesterfield — projected to finish on 72.8 points, from 15 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 7.4%, finishes top three 26.9%, bottom two 0.5%.
6. Walsall — projected to finish on 69.7 points, from 15 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.5% (down 0.1), finishes top three 17.3%, bottom two 0.6%.
7. Grimsby — projected to finish on 69.2 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.1% (up 0.1), finishes top three 16.6%, bottom two 0.6%.
8. Exeter City — projected to finish on 66.9 points, from 12 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.2%, finishes top three 12.3%, bottom two 2.1%.
9. Gillingham — projected to finish on 63.7 points, from 16 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.2%, finishes top three 7.7%, bottom two 3.8%.
10. Bristol Rovers — projected to finish on 63.5 points, from 15 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.3% (up 0.1), finishes top three 7.1%, bottom two 4.1%.
11. Port Vale — projected to finish on 62.8 points, from 8 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.4% (up 0.1), finishes top three 7.2%, bottom two 3.4%.
12. Colchester — projected to finish on 60.4 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.4% (down 0.1), finishes top three 4.7%, bottom two 6.6%.
13. Rochdale — projected to finish on 60 points, from 14 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8%, finishes top three 3%, bottom two 5.5%.
14. Cheltenham — projected to finish on 59.9 points, from 15 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top three 3.1%, bottom two 6.4%.
15. Fleetwood Town — projected to finish on 59.6 points, from 11 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4%, finishes top three 3.6%, bottom two 5.2%.
16. Northampton — projected to finish on 59.2 points, from 7 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top three 3.6%, bottom two 8.6%.
17. Rotherham — projected to finish on 59.1 points, from 10 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6%, finishes top three 3.8%, bottom two 8%.
18. Oldham — projected to finish on 58.9 points, from 8 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7%, finishes top three 4%, bottom two 9.2%.
19. Newport County — projected to finish on 56.9 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top three 2.5%, bottom two 11.5%.
20. Swindon Town — projected to finish on 56.2 points, from 11 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 1.4%, bottom two 12.7%.
21. Accrington Stanley — projected to finish on 55 points, from 11 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top three 1.5%, bottom two 13.9%.
22. Tranmere — projected to finish on 51.1 points, from 12 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top three 0.6%, bottom two 24.9%.
23. Shrewsbury — projected to finish on 51.1 points, from 11 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.3%, bottom two 23.9%.
24. Crawley Town — projected to finish on 44.3 points, from 5 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.1%, bottom two 48.4%.

Top scorers

1. C. McCann (Cheltenham) — 7 goals.
2. C. Lakin (Barnet) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
3. A. Newby (York) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
4. L. Marsh (Chesterfield) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
5. A. Drinan (Swindon Town) — 5 goals.
6. S. Gwengwe (Newport County) — 5 goals.
7. C. Caton (Accrington Stanley) — 5 goals.
8. A. Pressley (Walsall) — 5 goals.
9. K. Tshimanga (Barnet) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
10. P. Mullin (Rotherham) — 5 goals.
11. O. Pearce (York) — 4 goals, 4 assists.
12. L. Bonis (Chesterfield) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
13. C. Kavanagh (Oldham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
14. Ronan Hale (Gillingham) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
15. A. Weimann (Cheltenham) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
16. J. Evans (Cheltenham) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
17. D. Brown (Rochdale) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
18. K. Green (Grimsby) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. J. March (Crewe) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
20. J. Powell (Salford City) — 3 goals, 2 assists.