League One

1. Plymouth — 19 points from 10 played (6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 18 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
2. Bradford — 17 points from 9 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W W D D.
3. Stockport County — 16 points from 9 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 20 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
4. Huddersfield — 16 points from 9 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 16 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: D D L W D.
5. Cambridge United — 16 points from 9 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W D D W.
6. Reading — 15 points from 9 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 22 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: L W D D W.
7. Sheffield Wednesday — 15 points from 8 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 15 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W W D D D.
8. Oxford United — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 15 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
9. Stevenage — 12 points from 8 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 12 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: D W W L W.
10. Burton Albion — 12 points from 10 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 14 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L D W L L.
11. AFC Wimbledon — 12 points from 9 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: W W D D L.
12. Leyton Orient — 11 points from 9 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D L W L D.
13. Luton — 11 points from 8 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 16 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W D L L W.
14. Mansfield Town — 11 points from 8 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 12 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L D D W.
15. Wycombe — 10 points from 9 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 14 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: D W W D L.
16. Doncaster — 9 points from 8 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 9 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D L L W W.
17. Leicester — 9 points from 8 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W L W D L.
18. Blackpool — 8 points from 8 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
19. Barnsley — 8 points from 8 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: W L L D L.
20. Peterborough — 8 points from 9 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 7 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.
21. Bromley — 8 points from 8 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 9 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L L D W L.
22. Notts County — 7 points from 8 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D D L L L.
23. Milton Keynes Dons — 6 points from 8 played (0 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost), 9 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L D D D L.
24. Wigan — 4 points from 8 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 5 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: W L D L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-15, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 24 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Notts County — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 0.2%; bottom-three risk down 0.8, to 15.8%.
• Bromley — bottom-three risk up 0.7, to 58.4%.
• Peterborough — bottom-three risk up 0.7, to 22.2%.
• Sheffield Wednesday — chance of finishing top down 0.6, to 4.3%; bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 1%.
• Doncaster — bottom-three risk down 0.5, to 13.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 450 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-15, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Plymouth — projected to finish on 80 points, from 19 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 17.2%, finishes top two 31.8%, bottom four 0.3%.
2. Oxford United — projected to finish on 79.6 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 16% (up 0.1), finishes top two 29.5%, bottom four 0.4%.
3. Stockport County — projected to finish on 79 points, from 16 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 14.4% (up 0.2), finishes top two 27.4%, bottom four 0%.
4. Reading — projected to finish on 76.4 points, from 15 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 12.9% (up 0.2), finishes top two 22.8%, bottom four 0.5%.
5. Huddersfield — projected to finish on 75.3 points, from 16 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 9.7% (up 0.3), finishes top two 19.6%, bottom four 0.3%.
6. Leicester — projected to finish on 73.4 points, from 9 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 7% (up 0.2), finishes top two 14.3%, bottom four 1.5%.
7. Cambridge United — projected to finish on 73.1 points, from 16 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.7% (down 0.1), finishes top two 12.5%, bottom four 0.8%.
8. Bradford — projected to finish on 72.3 points, from 17 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.2% (up 0.3), finishes top two 9.7%, bottom four 0.5%.
9. Sheffield Wednesday — projected to finish on 70.7 points, from 15 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.3% (down 0.6), finishes top two 9.8%, bottom four 1.9%.
10. Luton — projected to finish on 70 points, from 11 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.6% (down 0.3), finishes top two 10.1%, bottom four 2.9%.
11. Mansfield Town — projected to finish on 65.9 points, from 11 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.5%, finishes top two 4.1%, bottom four 4.4%.
12. Stevenage — projected to finish on 65.4 points, from 12 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (down 0.3), finishes top two 2.8%, bottom four 3.4%.
13. Burton Albion — projected to finish on 60.3 points, from 12 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top two 0.6%, bottom four 9.6%.
14. Leyton Orient — projected to finish on 59.1 points, from 11 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5% (up 0.2), finishes top two 1.3%, bottom four 13.6%.
15. Wycombe — projected to finish on 59 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top two 1%, bottom four 14.9%.
16. Blackpool — projected to finish on 57.5 points, from 8 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3% (up 0.1), finishes top two 0.8%, bottom four 18.3%.
17. Notts County — projected to finish on 55.8 points, from 7 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2% (down 0.1), finishes top two 0.7%, bottom four 22.7%.
18. Doncaster — projected to finish on 55.1 points, from 9 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top two 0.5%, bottom four 21.2%.
19. Peterborough — projected to finish on 52.3 points, from 8 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom four 31%.
20. AFC Wimbledon — projected to finish on 51.9 points, from 12 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom four 32.2%.
21. Barnsley — projected to finish on 51.6 points, from 8 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top two 0.3%, bottom four 34.6%.
22. Milton Keynes Dons — projected to finish on 46.3 points, from 6 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom four 54.6%.
23. Wigan — projected to finish on 43.5 points, from 4 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom four 63.3%.
24. Bromley — projected to finish on 42.9 points, from 8 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom four 67.5%.

Top scorers

1. J. Marriott (Reading) — 8 goals.
2. K. Wootton (Stockport County) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
3. A. Collins (Milton Keynes Dons) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
4. J. Taylor (Huddersfield) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
5. N. Wells (Luton) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
6. J. Lowe (Sheffield Wednesday) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
7. D. Sanches Fernandes (Huddersfield) — 4 goals, 4 assists.
8. J. Diamond (Stockport County) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
9. J. Kabia (Leyton Orient) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
10. J. Brown (Reading) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
11. J. Stockley (AFC Wimbledon) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
12. M. Harris (Oxford United) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
13. A. Pepple (Plymouth) — 4 goals.
14. V. Adeboyejo (Bromley) — 4 goals.
15. Kyreece Lisbie (Reading) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
16. Y. Akhamrich (Leyton Orient) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
17. N. Moriah-Welsh (Mansfield Town) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
18. K. Palmer (Luton) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. J. Armer (Burton Albion) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
20. B. Knight (Cambridge United) — 3 goals, 1 assist.