League Stage - 1 · 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

AC Milan vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Full time0 – 2

Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% AC Milan, 27% draw, 40% Benfica — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: AC Milan 1.52, Benfica 1.79.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: AC Milan vs Benfica

66%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 40% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Milan0%Draw1%Benfica99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Strahinja Pavlović
11'
16'
⚽D. Lukebakioassist: J. Kaminski
26'
Souffian El Karouani
37'
Jhon Durán
🔁F. Terraccianoout: M. Gila
46'
🔁O. Hutchinsonout: C. Pulisic
46'
53'
⚽J. Kaminskiassist: S. El Karouani
🔁D. Bartesaghiout: A. Saelemaekers
57'
🔁A. Cisseout: D. Moreira
57'
70'
🔁F. Aursnesout: L. Barreiro
70'
🔁G. Sudakovout: G. Prestianni
🔁A. Jashariout: A. Rabiot
73'
77'
Daniel Banjaqui
80'
🔁J. Duranout: V. Pavlidis
80'
🔁J. Kaminskiout: A. Schjelderup
84'
Leandro Barreiro
88'
🔁S. El Karouaniout: S. Dahl
90+2'
Vangelis Pavlidis

Match stats — AC Milan vs Benfica

60%Possession40%
17Shots11
4On target4
10Corners1
0.96xG0.64

Goals against chances

AC Milan0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Benfica2 from 0.64 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 20O. HutchinsonF
  • 70A. CisseF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 2P. EstupinanD
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 22D. MoreiraF
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 58D. BanjaquiD
  • 3A. CircatiD
  • 44T. AraujoD
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 36J. PalhinhaM
  • 11D. LukebakioM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 22J. DuranF
Substitutes
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 16Manu SilvaM
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 25G. PrestianniF
  • 72AnisioF
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into AC Milan vs Benfica

AC Milan

  • D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026

Benfica

  • W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026
  • W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
35AC Milan100102-20
2Benfica110020+23

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Benfica

  • 16 September 2026AC Milan 0–2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
  • 28 July 2019AC Milan 0–1 BenficaInternational Champions Cup

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Benfica

AC Milan

No league goals yet this season.

Benfica

  • J. Kamiński1 goals1 assists
  • D. Lukebakio1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for AC Milan and 1.79 for Benfica; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: D. Lukebakio 16' (Benfica), J. Kaminski 53' (Benfica).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.79 for Benfica. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.5/0.82 for Benfica.