Ararat-Armenia
vs
Sparta Praha
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Ararat-Armenia, 24% draw, 57% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 0.96, Sparta Praha 2.53.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 57% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 637 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Line-ups
- 98Joao BravimG
- 3Junior JulioD
- 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 2H. OliveiraM
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 70BennyM
- 77A. SerobyanF
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 11Z. BanjaquiF
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 14B. PereiraD
- 5Luis FelipeD
- 20A. TeraM
- 17M. CarlierM
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 8J. A. BalantaM
- 25A. NdourF
- 9A. EloyanM
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 11M. RynesD
- 10A. KarabecM
- 28R. MacekM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 17J. MercadoF
- 14J. BrunesF
- 7J. AlcocerF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 54L. FrancG
- 3P. KaderabekD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 18A. IrvingM
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
- 16 September 2026Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
- 14 August 2025Ararat-Armenia 1–2 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League
- 7 August 2025Sparta Praha 4–1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
- Bruno Wilson1 goals
Sparta Praha
- T. Guddal2 goals
- P. Vydra1 goals
- J. Mercado1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.96 goals for Ararat-Armenia and 2.53 for Sparta Praha; the game produced 1 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: T. Guddal 20' (Sparta Praha), T. Guddal 22' (Sparta Praha), J. Mercado 53' (Sparta Praha), B. R. Wilson Valdez 55' (Ararat-Armenia), P. Vydra 71' (Sparta Praha).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia against 2.53 for Sparta Praha. Ararat-Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.11 for Sparta Praha.