Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Olympiakos Piraeus, 28% draw, 24% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78, Jagiellonia 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. OrtegaG
- 2M. SaliakasD
- 45P. RetsosD
- 5L. PirolaD
- 70B. OnyemaechiD
- 32S. HezzeM
- 19R. FreulerM
- 20Jota SilvaM
- 22ChiquinhoM
- 10G. MartinsM
- 34A. GonzalezF
- 61G. KouraklisG
- 91D. StournarasG
- 71N. TiknizyanD
- 6D. CarmoD
- 27M. PedersenD
- 4Z. SmajlovicD
- 15G. PuertaM
- 77C. FilisM
- 21T. BakoulasM
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 15N. WojtuszekD
- 5B. VitalD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 23G. MontoiaD
- 11J. ImazM
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 27R. ConceicaoF
- 99N. PrelecF
- 7K. SzmytF
- 1M. PerchelG
- 67J. RabiczkoG
- 3D. StojinovicD
- 20B. WdowikD
- 61B. KrasiewiczD
- 14H. FinndellM
- 21S. LozanoM
- 85E. KozlowskiM
- 32A. CirkovicF
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia
Olympiakos Piraeus
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
- W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026
- L1-2away to NEC Nijmegen11 August 2026
Jagiellonia
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026
- W4-0FC Iberia 199920 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rangers13 August 2026
- W2-1Rangers6 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia
- 16 September 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 JagielloniaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Jagiellonia
Olympiakos Piraeus
- R. Yaremchuk1 goals
- A. González1 goals
Jagiellonia
- K. Szmyt1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.78 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.91 for Jagiellonia; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: K. Szmyt 20' (Jagiellonia), A. Gonzalez 43' (Olympiakos Piraeus), R. Yaremchuk 84' (Olympiakos Piraeus).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.91 for Jagiellonia. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.32 for Jagiellonia.