League Stage - 1 · 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Anderlecht vs Lyon UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Lotto Park, Brussels
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Anderlecht, 31% draw, 28% Lyon — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.33, Lyon 0.92.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Anderlecht vs Lyon

45%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%1-0 13%0-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Anderlecht at 41% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Anderlecht0%Draw4%Lyon96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽N. Nartey
22'
⚽K. Nakamuraassist: M. Ouedraogo
26'
Moussa Niakhaté
44'
Mohamed Ouédraogo
🔁R. Amaneout: M. Kana
46'
46'
🔁M. Ouedraogoout: N. Tagliafico
46'
🔁M. Niakhateout: F. Bacher
⚽M. Cvetkovicassist: A. Maamar
61'
65'
🔁L. Opendaout: P. Sulc
🔁T. Aasgaardout: T. Bentayeb
74'
🔁L. Ambrosout: D. Sikan
74'
74'
🔁T. Mortonout: C. Tolisso
74'
🔁N. Narteyout: M. Bidstrup
🔁M. Cvetkovicout: O. Antman
85'
🔁L. Augustinssonout: N. Ojea
90+2'

Match stats — Anderlecht vs Lyon

58%Possession42%
14Shots13
5On target10
6Corners4
1.43xG1.27

Goals against chances

Anderlecht1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lyon2 from 1.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Anderlecht 4-4-2
  • 26C. CoosemansG
  • 79A. MaamarD
  • 12A. OmobamideleD
  • 27L. PetrotD
  • 6L. AugustinssonD
  • 18L. AmbrosM
  • 24E. LlansanaM
  • 8R. AmaneM
  • 10M. WinklerM
  • 9M. CvetkovicF
  • 19T. AasgaardF
Substitutes
  • 32J. HeekerenG
  • 5O. ReabciukD
  • 50K. BarryD
  • 55M. KanaM
  • 29M. StroeykensM
  • 68N. Kalonji KafumpataM
  • 21T. BentayebF
  • 61J. Nga KanaM
  • 11O. AntmanF
Coach: Vitor Bruno
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 22C. MataD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 76M. OuedraogoD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 17L. OpendaF
  • 11K. NakamuraF
Substitutes
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 25J. BenguiG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 10P. SulcM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Anderlecht vs Lyon

Anderlecht

  • W3-0Kairat Almaty27 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Kairat Almaty20 August 2026
  • W3-2PAOK13 August 2026
  • W1-0away to PAOK6 August 2026

Lyon

  • D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
  • W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
  • D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
  • L1-2Fenerbahçe26 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
29Anderlecht100112-10
5Lyon110021+13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Lyon

  • 16 September 2026Anderlecht 1–2 LyonUEFA Europa League
  • 16 July 2022Anderlecht 2–3 LyonFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Anderlecht and Lyon

Anderlecht

  • M. Cvetković1 goals

Lyon

  • N. Nartey1 goals
  • Keito Nakamura1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.33 goals for Anderlecht and 0.92 for Lyon; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: N. Nartey 8' (Lyon), K. Nakamura 22' (Lyon), M. Cvetkovic 61' (Anderlecht).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Anderlecht against 0.92 for Lyon. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.01 for Lyon.