Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 28% draw, 30% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.67, Dinamo Zagreb 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 42% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1127 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Line-ups
- 1O. MarcianoG
- 2G. MizrahiD
- 4Miguel VitorD
- 3M. BaltaxaD
- 5P. AmadorD
- 17A. ForsonM
- 28N. YehoshuaM
- 9Z. AhmedM
- 20J. EastF
- 66I. ZlatanovicF
- 14Y. MaledeF
- 34M. WolffG
- 36Y. Shani
- 13O. DavidzadaD
- 15I. NachmiasD
- 8H. KanaanF
- 11A. C. GanahF
- 90A. UgarrizaF
- 70Joao VictorF
- 45M. Abu RumiF
- 24D. KotarskiG
- 15N. GalesicD
- 36S. DominguezD
- 26S. McKennaD
- 3B. GodaD
- 27J. MisicM
- 21M. LisicaM
- 10L. StojkovicM
- 80L. KacavendaM
- 99M. OrsicM
- 11A. HoxhaF
- 1D. ZagoracG
- 44I. FilipovicG
- 25M. ValincicD
- 22M. Perez VinlofD
- 8M. ZajcM
- 5K. KravtsovM
- 17L. IvanusecM
- 23I. AlmenaF
- 14S. PrevljakF
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Sabah FA25 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- L1-3away to Viking26 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 16 September 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League
- 31 July 2018Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Champions League
- 24 July 2018Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Champions League
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Beer Sheva carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.47 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.21 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.73 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.66 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.21 for Dinamo Zagreb. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.41 for Dinamo Zagreb.