Omonia Nicosia
vs
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Omonia Nicosia, 31% draw, 36% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.06, Celta Vigo 1.16.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 36% here. Across 2496 settled matches, 1779 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40FabianoG
- 93J. DuverneD
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 37L. SatkaD
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 74P. AndreouM
- 14M. MaricM
- 11Costa EwandroM
- 22M. TankovicM
- 7J. MontnorM
- 99L. DionyF
- 78P. MichailG
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 27S. SimicD
- 82A. Christou
- 77L. NegoD
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
- 92P. ChristoforouM
- 20L. BrouwersM
- 17F. TanaseM
- 13I. RaduG
- 20J. RodriguezD
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 3M. AlonsoD
- 15A. NunezM
- 8M. RomanM
- 5S. CarreiraM
- 24C. DriouechM
- 30H. BurcioF
- 11P. DuranF
- 9F. JutglaF
- 1A. BayindirG
- 22J. GalanD
- 21S. CaceresD
- 17J. RuedaD
- 18Y. LagoD
- 4A. FayeD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14A. FebasM
- 16H. GonzalezF
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 31 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
- 16 September 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
- J. Balkovec1 goals
Celta Vigo
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.06 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.16 for Celta Vigo; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Balkovec 88' (Omonia Nicosia).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1178 correct results out of 2496 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 1.16 for Celta Vigo. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.19 for Celta Vigo.