Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction & result
Final score: Cambridge United 1-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Cambridge United, 28% draw, 23% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambridge United at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon
Line-ups
- 1J. EastwoodG
- 15Cathal Séan Heffernan AndrewsD
- 6K. WattsD
- 22Z. BradshawD
- 8O. MoxonM
- 4D. BallM
- 17P. MpanzuM
- 7Isaac HeathM
- 10B. KnightM
- 27G. McConnellM
- 14G. YahyaiF
- 30L. McDougaldM
- 9L. AppéréF
- 13G. BreezeG
- 32D. EfobiF
- 33D. HerdD
- 38G. HoddleM
- 19S. LaveryF
- 39J. BursikG
- 17A. YiadomD
- 33I. OgundereD
- 26D. SweeneyD
- 3S. SeddonD
- 29A. SasuD
- 31D. RichardsM
- 5O. HarrisonM
- 12A. SmithM
- 8C. MaycockM
- 9J. StockleyF
- 37Robin AshamuM
- 20J. McDonnellG
- 19Donnell McNeillyF
- 10Z. NelsonM
- 22R. HoranD
Form going into Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon
Cambridge United
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion5 September 2026
AFC Wimbledon
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon
- 26 September 2026Cambridge United 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 26 March 2022AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 30 October 2021Cambridge United 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 2 January 2016Cambridge United 1–4 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 18 August 2015AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 24 February 2015Cambridge United 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight31
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.