26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

York vs Gillingham League Two prediction & result

York Community Stadium, York
Full time3 – 0

Final score: York 3-0 Gillingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% York, 26% draw, 27% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts York at 47% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

York99%Draw1%Gillingham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Joey Greyassist: Ollie Pearce
2'
19'
🔁W. Goodwinout: Zane Albarus
31'
🔁Eli Kingout: Garath McCleary
37'
Omar Beckles
45+1'
Robbie McKenzie
Joey Grey
45+3'
50'
Garath McCleary
🔁Alex Newbyout: jovan malcolm
57'
60'
Zane Albarus
65'
🔁Logan Dobbsout: S. Kendall
65'
🔁Ronan Chapman Haleout: Bradley Dack
65'
🔁Andy Smithout: Jack Daley
70'
Zane Albarus
⚽jovan malcolmassist: Harry Boyes
75'
⚽Ollie Pearceassist: Harry Boyes
79'
🔁Ollie Banksout: Jeff King
81'
🔁Joey Greyout: Frankie Maguire
81'
🔁Joseph Rabole Felixout: Arthur Read
81'

Match stats — York vs Gillingham

65%Possession35%
17Shots6
6On target0
4Corners2

Line-ups

York 3-4-2-1
  • 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
  • 2R. FallowfieldD
  • 5Z. JohnsonD
  • 3M. KitchingD
  • 23J. FelixM
  • 28O. BanksM
  • 8A. HuntM
  • 12H. BoyesM
  • 7J. GreyM
  • 30A. NewbyM
  • 10O. PearceF
Substitutes
  • 32J. HuntD
  • 15J. KingD
  • 11F. MaguireM
  • 18J. MalcolmF
  • 6A. PalmerD
  • 16A. ReadM
  • 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
Coach: S. Lindsey
Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 14R. McKenzieM
  • 34E. KingM
  • 10Ronan HaleF
  • 9W. GoodwinF
  • 24H. WaldockF
Substitutes
  • 17C. AntwiM
  • 23B. DackM
  • 40R. LuthraG
  • 12G. McClearyM
  • 18S. KendallM
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 15Z. AlbarusM
Coach: G. Ainsworth

Form going into York vs Gillingham

York

  • L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
  • W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026

Gillingham

  • W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
  • W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5York94321711+615
4Gillingham104421510+516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: York vs Gillingham

  • 26 September 2026York 3–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 12 February 2013York 0–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 26 January 2013Gillingham 1–1 YorkLeague Two

Leading scorers: York and Gillingham

York

GoalsAssists

  • A. Newby61
  • O. Pearce44

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.