26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Shrewsbury vs Colchester League Two prediction & result

The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Shrewsbury 2-2 Colchester.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Shrewsbury, 31% draw, 39% Colchester — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Colchester at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shrewsbury3%Draw93%Colchester4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luca Hoole
10'
19'
⚽Moses Sesay
⚽Luca Hooleassist: Tom Sang
29'
George Lloyd
61'
🔁Josh Davisonout: will gray
67'
73'
🔁Bradley ihionveinout: Oscar thorn
73'
🔁Harry Andersonout: Beryly Lubala
J. Turner-Cook
89'
90'
🔁K. Kouassiout: Kien Connelly
⚽Isaac Fletcher
90+2'
90+5'
⚽Moses Sesayassist: Oscar thorn

Match stats — Shrewsbury vs Colchester

39%Possession61%
18Shots11
6On target4
8Corners4

Line-ups

Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
  • 1William Michael BrookG
  • 6S. StubbsD
  • 5W. BoyleD
  • 26T. AndersonD
  • 2L. HooleM
  • 10T. SangM
  • 7J. Turner-CookeM
  • 11K. BerkoeM
  • 8Isaac Andrew FletcherM
  • 9G. LloydF
  • 13J. DavisonF
Substitutes
  • 4Isaac EnglandD
  • 27J. GbodeF
  • 21will grayM
  • 24L. SousaD
  • 23I. LeeD
  • 46H. AistonF
  • 32Cameron GregoryG
Coach: G. Cowan
Colchester 4-2-3-1
  • 22T. Lo-TutalaG
  • 2R. HuntD
  • 5J. TuckerD
  • 20S. RaggettD
  • 3E. IandoloD
  • 12M. SesayM
  • 26J. WilliamsM
  • 14K. KouassiM
  • 10J. PayneM
  • 7H. AndersonM
  • 9B. IhionvienF
Substitutes
  • 27O. ThornF
  • 24F. TerryD
  • 15B. LubalaF
  • 44S. KuffourD
  • 6P. DigbyM
  • 31Oscar RobertsG
  • 39K. ConnellyF
Coach: D. Cowley

Form going into Shrewsbury vs Colchester

Shrewsbury

  • D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
  • W2-0Northampton12 September 2026

Colchester

  • D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
  • D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Shrewsbury10325915-611
19Colchester92431013-310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Colchester

  • 26 September 2026Shrewsbury 2–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 7 February 2026Colchester 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • 16 August 2025Shrewsbury 0–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 4 November 2023Shrewsbury 3–2 ColchesterFA Cup
  • 27 February 2016Colchester 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 10 October 2015Shrewsbury 4–2 ColchesterLeague One
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.