Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result
Final score: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington Stanley.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 29% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swindon Town at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
Line-ups
- 1C. RipleyG
- 6J. BallD
- 5S. NegruD
- 21K. MajekodunmiD
- 26D. ButlerD
- 27A. MundaM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 8O. ClarkeM
- 9P. GlatzelF
- 23A. DrinanF
- 15J. HungboF
- 14D. ButterworthM
- 18J. DebayoD
- 29A. HackfordF
- 34B. KirkmanD
- 7T. NicholsM
- 24M. Virtue-ThickM
- 12Lewis Moore WardG
- 1L. MouldenG
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 28S. ConneelyD
- 22J. AndersonD
- 38C. O'BrienM
- 2D. LoveM
- 6L. CoyleM
- 33D. TutondaM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 39J. WoodsF
- 23T. WaltonF
- 30C. WarrenF
- 13C. StocktonF
- 25J. SmithD
- 21J. RogersonG
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 27J. CatesbyF
- 20C. BrownF
Form going into Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
Swindon Town
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
Accrington Stanley
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
- 26 September 2026Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 18 April 2026Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Accrington Stanley 4–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 22 March 2025Swindon Town 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 30 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownFA Cup
- 16 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Accrington Stanley
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- C. Caton50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.