Oldham vs Salford City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Oldham 1-4 Salford City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Oldham, 30% draw, 31% Salford City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oldham vs Salford City
Line-ups
- 1M. HudsonG
- 2G. Scott-MorrissD
- 23R. DelaneyD
- 24L. TempleD
- 6E. MontheD
- 3J. RobsonD
- 14N. ChilversM
- 8O. NorburnM
- 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
- 10C. KavanaghF
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 15K. DrummondF
- 17F. FawunmiF
- 20E. NevittF
- 26Kai PayneM
- 4T. PettM
- 16W. SuttonD
- 22Wilson WilsonG
- 1W. NorrisG
- 4W. AimsonD
- 17D. ScarrD
- 24T. AllenD
- 43L. MolyneuxM
- 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
- 6J. PowellM
- 14A. OdohM
- 7B. WoodburnF
- 9M. LangstaffF
- 10K. N’MaiF
- 18M. ButcherM
- 29L. GarbuttD
- 8J. GrantM
- 30Kyrell MalcolmM
- 22A. OluwoD
- 23D. UdohF
- 26L. BurgeG
Form going into Oldham vs Salford City
Oldham
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
Salford City
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Salford City
- 26 September 2026Oldham 1–4 Salford CityLeague Two
- 18 April 2026Oldham 1–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Salford City 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 23 April 2022Oldham 1–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 27 November 2021Salford City 2–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 31 August 2021Oldham 1–0 Salford CityEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Oldham and Salford City
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh43
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- J. Powell32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.