Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result
Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 26% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Line-ups
- 1J. LynchG
- 29R. CirinoD
- 26S. RooneyD
- 5F. PotterD
- 32Kayden HughesD
- 14L. McCannD
- 15A. MurphyM
- 4H. NealM
- 10M. HelmM
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 17C. EvansF
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 9W. DaviesF
- 36J. DempseyD
- 22J. PradicG
- 28J. RobertsonM
- 24Jake Thomas BattyD
- 35S. CostelloeM
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 2C. TaskerD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 18J. SmithM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 21Kane TaylorM
- 39D. BrownF
- 26S. SherringD
- 7C. HayesF
- 19L. HannantM
- 10D. RodneyF
- 14E. FrancisM
- 9E. DieseruvweF
- 12J. SpavenG
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
Rochdale
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
- 26 September 2026Fleetwood Town 1–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 20 July 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Rochdale 3–3 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2021Fleetwood Town 1–0 RochdaleLeague One
- 3 October 2020Rochdale 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 26 December 2019Rochdale 2–3 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.