Cheltenham vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result
Final score: Cheltenham 2-1 Chesterfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cheltenham, 28% draw, 38% Chesterfield — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
Line-ups
- 23W. StanwayG
- 3J. TomkinsonD
- 5R. CundyD
- 25P. SweeneyD
- 4J. TomlinsonD
- 7B. StevensonM
- 19J. EvansM
- 14R. BroomM
- 8C. McCannM
- 26J. ShipleyM
- 18A. WeimannF
- 11J. BickerstaffF
- 1J. DayG
- 10G. MillerF
- 21G. NurseD
- 33F. WillcoxM
- 6J. WilsonD
- 9K. OtchereF
- 23R. BootG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 5K. McFadzeanD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 20G. McEachranM
- 8R. StirkM
- 24D. MarkandayM
- 18L. MarshM
- 31J. RandallM
- 10L. BonisF
- 11D. DuffyM
- 27K. DyerM
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 4T. NaylorM
- 46T. PearceD
- 26J. EcclestonD
- 9F. BrydenF
Form going into Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
Cheltenham
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
Chesterfield
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
- 26 September 2026Cheltenham 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 3 April 2026Chesterfield 1–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 9 August 2025Cheltenham 0–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 1 February 2025Cheltenham 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 21 September 2024Chesterfield 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 17 March 2018Cheltenham 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Chesterfield
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann70
- A. Weimann42
- J. Evans32
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
- L. Bonis42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.