Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Exeter City.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bristol Rovers, 29% draw, 33% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bristol Rovers at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City
Line-ups
- 1Brad YoungG
- 2T. JamesD
- 4K. BalmerD
- 17C. KellyD
- 5A. KilgourD
- 21R. SmallwoodM
- 6C. MolaM
- 7S. FordeM
- 3J. SparkesM
- 19E. HarrisonM
- 29F. CavegnF
- 22Keenan GoughM
- 10B. KamwaF
- 14B. PurringtonD
- 9J. QuigleyF
- 8R. Russell-DennyM
- 27P. SanyaoluM
- 32Charlie BinnsG
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 31J. Doyle-HayesM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 7G. EdwardsM
- 12R. ColeM
- 23Ethan SutherlandM
- 32D. RoseF
- 8T. PerryM
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 18Liam OakesD
- 14H. KiteM
- 10J. GordonF
- 20George BirchM
- 11A. OluwaboriF
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City
Bristol Rovers
- L0-3away to Gillingham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby12 September 2026
Exeter City
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City
- 26 September 2026Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 12 April 2025Bristol Rovers 1–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 26 December 2024Exeter City 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 29 October 2024Bristol Rovers 2–3 Exeter CityEFL Trophy
- 3 February 2024Exeter City 0–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 23 January 2024Bristol Rovers 0–1 Exeter CityLeague One
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.