Newport County vs Grimsby League Two prediction & result
Final score: Newport County 2-1 Grimsby.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Newport County, 28% draw, 44% Grimsby — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newport County vs Grimsby
Line-ups
- 1J. WrightG
- 22C. NormanD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 16M. JacobD
- 24M. Dibley-DiasM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 23M. Adu-PokuM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 9S. GwengweM
- 27C. DoidgeF
- 7K. EvansM
- 19G. GarnerF
- 18A. LewisD
- 33S. MacDonaldG
- 20Y. BambaF
- 8M. SmithM
- 12Joe ThomasD
- 31C. PymG
- 5H. RodgersD
- 2M. KacurriD
- 17C. McJannetD
- 3J. SweeneyD
- 29M. SheltonM
- 28F. CartwrightM
- 4K. GreenM
- 7J. WalkerM
- 30C. VernamM
- 9Iwan MorganF
- 39A. CookF
- 8Cian DoyleM
- 10S. FinchF
- 16R. StauntonD
- 14J. AmaluzorF
- 11Ryley ReynoldsM
- 41S. AutonG
Form going into Newport County vs Grimsby
Newport County
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
Grimsby
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs Grimsby
- 26 September 2026Newport County 2–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 7 February 2026Newport County 0–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Grimsby 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 22 March 2025Grimsby 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 16 November 2024Newport County 0–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 6 April 2024Grimsby 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and Grimsby
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Grimsby
GoalsAssists
- K. Green32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.