Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Independiente Medellin, 26% draw, 20% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Line-ups
- 25E. ChauxG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 4K. MantillaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. Mena PereaD
- 6D. MorenoM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 8J. QuinteroM
- 20J. MontanoM
- 9J. MedinaF
- 1S. IchazoG
- 5J. VarelaD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 31D. MorenoM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 11Yony GonzalezF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 24N. ErazoM
- 1D. MartinezG
- 4J. FrancoD
- 6J. LoveraD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 23J. ArcilaD
- 17D. LopezM
- 5R. R. Colpa BolanoM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 24S. CubidesM
- 16J. BeltranF
- 11A. RenteriaF
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 3J. MalagonD
- 14E. MartinezD
- 10JopitoM
- 19C. CantilloM
- 8D. Rodriguez UrangoF
- 9J. MejiaF
- 27F. GraciaM
- 28D. ZuluagaM
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
No earlier matches on record this season.
Jaguares
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
- 22 September 2026Independiente Medellin 2–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 15 March 2026Jaguares 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 7 August 2025Jaguares 0–1 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 31 July 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 JaguaresCopa Colombia
- 29 October 2024Independiente Medellin 4–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 7 April 2024Jaguares 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.