Leyton Orient
vs
Blackpool
League One prediction
Our model says: Leyton Orient 1–0 Blackpool
The model makes it 41% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 31% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.45, Blackpool 1.18.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leyton Orient are 12th on 11 points from 9 games; Blackpool are 18th on 8 points from 8 games — League One.
- Leyton Orient have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Bradford.
- Blackpool have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cambridge United.
- Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Blackpool 1–0 Leyton Orient.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leyton Orient at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Leyton Orient
- D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026
- L0-2Plymouth3 October 2026
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
Blackpool
- L0-1away to Cambridge United10 October 2026
- L2-4Plymouth19 September 2026
- D2-2Bromley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Reading5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnsley2 September 2026
What these results say
- Leyton Orient failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leyton Orient had two goals or fewer.
- Blackpool did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leyton Orient
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Blackpool
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
- 25 April 2026Blackpool 1–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 22 November 2025Leyton Orient 1–1 BlackpoolLeague One
- 15 March 2025Blackpool 1–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 9 November 2024Leyton Orient 3–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 27 February 2024Leyton Orient 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 19 August 2023Blackpool 0–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Blackpool
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
- Y. Akhamrich32
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leyton Orient carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.24 for Blackpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.18 for Blackpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leyton Orient rate 0.52 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackpool rate 0.54 and 1.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 0.5% chance of the title and Blackpool 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leyton Orient the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 1.18 for Blackpool. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.84 for Blackpool.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leyton Orient at home · Blackpool away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leyton Orient 9, Blackpool 8.
Leyton Orient score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Blackpool have let in 3 there.
Blackpool score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leyton Orient
- at Reading21 Oct · League Onewin 23%
- at Burton Albion24 Oct · League Onewin 31%
- vs Cambridge United31 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- at Doncaster14 Nov · League Onewin 32%
Blackpool
- vs Milton Keynes Dons20 Oct · League Onewin 50%
- vs Mansfield Town24 Oct · League Onewin 38%
- at Sheffield Wednesday1 Nov · League Onewin 27%
- at AFC Wimbledon14 Nov · League Onewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.