Peterborough
vs
Burton Albion
League One prediction
Our model says: Peterborough 1–0 Burton Albion
The model makes it 38% Peterborough, 28% draw, 34% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.38, Burton Albion 1.26.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Peterborough are 20th on 8 points from 9 games; Burton Albion are 10th on 12 points from 10 games — League One.
- Peterborough have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Leicester.
- Burton Albion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Doncaster.
- Last 6 meetings: Peterborough 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Peterborough vs Burton Albion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Peterborough at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Peterborough vs Burton Albion
Peterborough
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
Burton Albion
- L0-1away to Doncaster10 October 2026
- L1-3Huddersfield3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Peterborough
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Burton Albion
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Burton Albion
- 19 April 2026Peterborough 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 18 October 2025Burton Albion 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 1 January 2025Burton Albion 2–2 PeterboroughLeague One
- 4 December 2024Peterborough 0–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 9 March 2024Burton Albion 1–3 PeterboroughLeague One
- 25 November 2023Peterborough 4–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Burton Albion
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Burton Albion
GoalsAssists
- J. Armer31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.23 for Burton Albion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Peterborough and 1.26 for Burton Albion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Peterborough rate 0.50 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burton Albion rate 0.52 and 1.81.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Burton Albion, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Peterborough a 0% chance of the title and Burton Albion 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Peterborough the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.26 for Burton Albion. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.81 for Burton Albion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Peterborough at home · Burton Albion away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Peterborough 9, Burton Albion 10.
Burton Albion score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Peterborough have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Peterborough
- at Huddersfield20 Oct · League Onewin 21%
- at Bromley24 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- at Bradford27 Oct · League Cupwin 21%
- vs Luton31 Oct · League Onewin 32%
- vs Oxford United14 Nov · League Onewin 28%
Burton Albion
- vs Bradford20 Oct · League Onewin 33%
- vs Leyton Orient24 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- at Wycombe31 Oct · League Onewin 30%
- at Milton Keynes Dons14 Nov · League Onewin 38%
- vs Luton21 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.