Newport County
vs
York
League Two prediction
Our model says: Newport County 1–2 York
The model makes it 31% Newport County, 26% draw, 43% York — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.40, York 1.73.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to York: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Newport County are 12th on 13 points from 10 games; York are 5th on 15 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Colchester.
- York have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Northampton.
- Last 6 meetings: Newport County 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2016, ended York 0–1 Newport County.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newport County vs York
Has the model earned this number?
It puts York at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newport County vs York
Newport County
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
York
- D1-1Northampton10 October 2026
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
- W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026
What these results say
- Newport County went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newport County had two goals or fewer.
- York scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Newport County
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
York
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Newport County vs York
- 16 January 2016York 0–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 5 September 2015Newport County 0–3 YorkLeague Two
- 25 April 2015York 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 11 October 2014Newport County 3–1 YorkLeague Two
- 26 April 2014York 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 19 October 2013Newport County 3–0 YorkLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and York
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
York
GoalsAssists
- A. Newby61
- O. Pearce44
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.27 for York. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Newport County and 1.73 for York. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.46 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; York rate 0.64 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.3% chance of the title and York 13%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Newport County against 1.73 for York. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/2.09 for York.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newport County at home · York away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Newport County 10, York 9.
Newport County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); York have let in 4 there.
York score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Newport County have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newport County
- at Rotherham20 Oct · League Twowin 27%
- at Cheltenham24 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- vs Chesterfield30 Oct · League Twowin 32%
- at Crewe14 Nov · League Twowin 24%
- vs Swindon Town21 Nov · League Twowin 40%
York
- vs Accrington Stanley20 Oct · League Twowin 53%
- vs Port Vale24 Oct · League Twowin 46%
- at Grimsby31 Oct · League Twowin 33%
- at Rochdale14 Nov · League Twowin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.