Plymouth vs Burton Albion League One prediction & result
Final score: Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Plymouth, 26% draw, 26% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Line-ups
- 1M. MahoneyG
- 45W. HardingD
- 15A. MitchellD
- 5Julio PleguezueloD
- 29M. SorinolaD
- 11R. CurtisM
- 19T. BakinsonM
- 7H. WhiteM
- 14O. IrowM
- 9W. EvansF
- 27A. PeppleF
- 10X. AmaechiF
- 8J. EdwardsD
- 23B. IbrahimM
- 3Jack MackenzieD
- 2M. RossD
- 21James StorerG
- 17C. WattsM
- 34C. AddaiG
- 26F. DelapD
- 12G. EvansD
- 16C. TiltD
- 17R. Borges RodriguesM
- 14W. CollarM
- 4K. ChaukeM
- 3J. ArmerM
- 18Caylon VickersM
- 8C. WebsterM
- 29Kain AdomF
- 24Harvey AraujoD
- 19M. DennisF
- 27K. DudekG
- 41Sulyman KruballyM
- 40Zac ScuttF
- 20J. SrahaD
- 23Emeka AdeileD
Form going into Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Plymouth
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
Burton Albion
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
- 26 September 2026Plymouth 0–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 4 January 2026Plymouth 3–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 27 September 2025Burton Albion 0–4 PlymouthLeague One
- 29 April 2023Plymouth 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 19 November 2022Burton Albion 2–2 PlymouthLeague One
- 9 April 2022Burton Albion 0–0 PlymouthLeague One
Leading scorers: Plymouth and Burton Albion
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple40
Burton Albion
GoalsAssists
- J. Armer31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.